Global Threat Board

Twelve theatres.
One escalation score each.

Analyst-assigned escalation likelihood across every theatre we monitor, refreshed daily and scored against the previous run — so you see the direction of travel, not just today's number. Open data, free, no signup.

Status
LIVE
Last update
—
Next scan in
—
Run timestamp (UTC)
2026-10-10T16:04Z

Refreshed daily. Raw feed: threat-board.json — free to reuse under MIT.

10
Alert ≥ 80%
2
Elevated 55–79%
0
Watch < 55%
12
Theatres tracked

Ten theatres remain on alert and no score moves, about six hours after the previous run. General, NATO-Russia, Middle East, Sahel, Sudan and Myanmar queries return no new dated fact; silence in hidden-loss theatres measures our sources, not the theatre.

Theatre
Score
Level
vs prev
Trend
Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb
red-sea
100%
0
→
Yemen's government said on 7 October the Houthis fired at least two ballistic missiles and several drones at Aden airport, one landing near the runway minutes before a Cairo flight, which was diverted to Jeddah; the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile north of Riyadh (Al Jazeera, Reuters, 7 October), and the Houthis claim strikes on the Riyadh and Abha airports. Government forces launched an offensive on Houthi-held al-Waziiya in Taiz, with fighting concentrated in the highlands east of Bab al-Mandeb, and Pakistan and Turkiye agreed on 5 October to activate deterrence measures and deploy forces to Saudi Arabia under their defence pact (Al Jazeera). Mocha's status remains contested between the government and the Houthis; no casualties beyond the minor injuries of 5 October are verified on Saudi territory. Score held at the 100 cap; Saudi ground participation or a verified toll on Saudi soil would be a breakout note.
View this theatre on the live map →
Iran / Gulf / Hormuz
iran-gulf
100%
0
→
Rubio said in Athens on 7 October that Iran has 'lost complete control' of Hormuz and that almost as much oil is flowing as before the war (Fox News, 7 October), a claim at odds with UKMTO's finding last week that traffic is about 75% below pre-conflict levels and with our earlier near-zero reading from straits.live: the transit figure is contested and we carry the UKMTO number. Vance said on 5-6 October that any deal requires Iran to cut its enrichment capacity, an IRGC adviser said on 7 October that the smaller bypass routes will be shut, and Israel's military intelligence chief told ministers the US controls the strait more than Iran does while officials fear an Iranian missile launch as the rial hits a record low (Fox News citing Jerusalem Post). The Theodore Roosevelt carrier group and Makin Island group remain en route; no dated US strike on Iranian territory is verified this cycle, and the score holds at the 100 cap. Context logged, not scored: Iran International (5 October) reported a third tanker hit near Hormuz with Tehran calling US talks 'meaningless', and Al Jazeera (4 October) quoted Iran saying the strait stays closed until US conditions are met. Added 8 October: a tanker off Qatar reported hits from multiple projectiles on 7 October (Times of Israel citing a maritime agency, no detail or attribution), and Trump rejected Tehran's latest offer, warning operations could intensify after the midterms (Reuters interview with Vance, 7 October); logged, not scored. Added 9 October: UKMTO said several projectiles hit the tanker Acers about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on 7 October, the first attack in that area in over six months, and on 8 October a tanker, probably the Dhalgout, burned about 40 km off Fujairah with cause unclear (Euronews, 8 October); neither attack is claimed or attributed, though IRGC-affiliated outlets implied an extension of operations beyond the strait and adviser Safavi warned the war could reach the Indian Ocean. Logged, not scored; the score holds at the 100 cap. Added 8 October: a tanker off Qatar reported hits from multiple projectiles on 7 October (Times of Israel citing a maritime agency, no detail or attribution), and Trump rejected Tehran's latest offer, warning operations could intensify after the midterms (Reuters interview with Vance, 7 October); logged, not scored. 9 October 16:00Z run: UKMTO data cited by JFeed (6 October) count 12 tankers struck in Hormuz between 29 September and 5 October and an Iranian seizure of a tanker on 5 October; context logged, no attack on Iranian territory verified, score holds at 100.
View this theatre on the live map →
NATO / Baltic
nato-baltic
100%
0
→
No new dated fact since Putin said at the Valdai Club on 1 October that Russia would consider 'all weapons in our arsenal' if Kaliningrad were attacked (CNN, 1 October). The 23 September Mi-8 incursion near Braniewo remains the last verified airspace violation; US bombers were withdrawn from RAF Fairford on 4 October after a security incident with six arrests (CBS News, Fox News). The score stays at the 100 cap and rhetoric is logged, not scored.
View this theatre on the live map →
Ukraine
ukraine
100%
0
→
Russian strikes killed at least 41 and injured 67 across Ukraine over the past day to 9 October, 32 of them in Kramatorsk (Donetsk oblast), with glide bombs on Zaporizhzhia (Kyiv Independent, 9 October). On 8 October an attack on energy infrastructure cut power to over 3 million people in Kyiv and halted the metro, a city-level outage and not a national telecom blackout. The Kyiv Independent now puts the 6-7 October night at 30 dead including 5 children, reconciling the earlier 19 and 22 counts upward. Two nights with 20+ dead confirm the cap; the score holds at 100 and the national-blackout trigger is not met.
View this theatre on the live map →
Korea / DPRK
korea
97%
0
→
North Korea fired a ballistic missile from the Wonsan area toward the East Sea at about 06:30 local on 3 October; South Korea's JCS said it flew at least 700 km, Japan put it near 680 km, and state media described an intermediate-range test (NK News, Japan Times, Stars and Stripes, 3-5 October). Kim Yo Jong said on 5 October the range gap with Seoul and Tokyo reflects 'skip points' in a wave-like trajectory, and Kim Jong Un called it a demonstration of counterattack capability. Upgrade to 97 under the pre-declared clause (intermediate-range system within 30 days of 20 September); the launch was not captured by the 3-4 October runs, so verification latency was about two days.
View this theatre on the live map →
Syria-Lebanon
lebanon-syria
95%
0
→
No Israeli strike or Hezbollah attack on Lebanon dated after 29 September is verified in this cycle's queries, and the seven-day window that opened after the 26-27 September exchange closed on 4 October. Syrian government and Hezbollah representatives held first known direct talks in Turkey on 1-2 October (Reuters, six anonymous sources), logged but not scored. The pre-declared downgrade to 95 is applied on window closure; the limit is that absence is measured on our queries, and any verified strike restores 99.
View this theatre on the live map →
Sahel
sahel
95%
0
→
France 24 reported on 6 October that Mali's army announced it had entered Kidal, deserted by the Tuareg rebels who claimed to have seized it on 25 April; it is a territorial shift, not de-escalation, and no toll is attached. No new dated fact after the Islamic State Sahel claim of 27 September on two Niger attacks (Abala-Filingué, Birni-N'Konni) with more than 50 killed (Reuters, 28 September, two security sources; SITE). The AFP carriers (Africanews, France 24, Arab News) return nothing newer than the 14 September report of 50+ soldiers killed at Dioura. Verification latency in this theatre runs 5 to 11 days: AFP on the 14th, Reuters on the 21st for Dioura; a silent cycle measures our sources, not the theatre, and the score holds at 95. 9 October run: AFP carrier and JNIM-claims queries again return nothing newer; this measures our sources, not the theatre. 9 October 16:00Z: JNIM/RSF/PDF and AFP-carrier queries again return nothing newer; this measures our sources, not the theatre. Verification latency: Kidal item AFP-carried 6 October, no Reuters or official toll yet; silence on tolls measures our sources, not the theatre.
View this theatre on the live map →
Sudan
sudan
92%
0
→
No new dated fact after the 1 October RSF drone strike on a University of Kordofan dormitory in El Obeid that killed five and wounded 47 (Sudanese Doctors Network via Sudan Tribune, 1 October), the third aerial strike on the city in a week. The army and Joint Force retook Sodari on 25 September while the RSF still hold Al-Mazroub and Um Badr. Verification latency is 1-3 days via Sudan Tribune and Dabanga, with no independent third-party confirmation yet; the score holds at 92. 8 October run: no fact newer than 1 October found; latest searches return July El Obeid siege coverage only. 9 October 16:00Z: JNIM/RSF/PDF and AFP-carrier queries again return nothing newer; this measures our sources, not the theatre.
View this theatre on the live map →
Gaza
gaza
83%
0
→
The IDF said on 7 October it struck and killed two Hamas operatives who left Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, one of whom planted explosives near the yellow line (IDF via Fox News, 7 October); no daily toll above 10 is verified, and more than 1,400 have been killed since the October 2025 ceasefire. There is still no dated Israeli commitment on disarmament, and the third anniversary of 7 October passed with statements only. The score holds at 83. A Hamas-run Civil Defense member was killed in a strike in northern Gaza on 7 October (Times of Israel); no daily toll above 10.
View this theatre on the live map →
Myanmar
myanmar
82%
0
→
No new dated fact after the 28 September air strike on Kyauktaw market in Rakhine that killed at least 50 and wounded at least 58 (Manila Times, Japan Times, 30 September; first tolls 33 and 36 per Al Jazeera, AP). The Arakan Army says a fighter jet dropped two bombs on the wholesale market; the junta has not commented and no Arakan Army retaliation is verified. Verification latency in this theatre runs about 2-5 days via Irrawaddy and Myanmar Now; this cycle's search returned only older or undated items, so the score holds at 82. 8 October run: no fact newer than 28 September found; a silent cycle measures our sources, not the theatre. 9 October 16:00Z: JNIM/RSF/PDF and AFP-carrier queries again return nothing newer; this measures our sources, not the theatre.
View this theatre on the live map →
Taiwan / Strait
taiwan
79%
0
→
The first two of 66 F-16V Block 70 fighters arrived in Taiwan on 2 October and former president Tsai is due to visit the US this week (Reuters); the record 14 billion dollar US arms package remains stalled with no Congressional notification. No PLA exercise or Strait incident dated after 2 October is verified in this cycle. The score holds at 79; a formal notification would be the trigger, scored when it occurs and not before.
View this theatre on the live map →
Arctic
arctic
68%
0
→
The US-Denmark-Greenland Arctic security agreement was signed on 22 September (Al Jazeera, White House) and Denmark said on 29 September it is confident of a long-term NATO presence in Greenland (FDD). No dated signature or announcement on US-Russia Arctic economic cooperation is verified, and none is anticipated in the score. The score holds at 68.
View this theatre on the live map →

Click any theatre to read the assessment.

What would change the picture

See it on the live map

The board tells you which theatres deserve attention. The C4ISR dashboard shows you what is moving inside them right now — military aircraft, naval vessels, satellite passes and thermal anomalies, on one map.

Open live map How it works
Method, plainly. Scores are an analyst's ordering of attention, not a forecast and not a model output — they carry no confidence interval and should not be read as one. Every run is archived with its sources, so you can check our work and tell us where we got it wrong.